Wildermuth, Robert P., Tommasi, Désirée, Kaplan, Isaac C., Bograd, Steven J., Hinchliffe, Charlie, Hunsicker, Mary E., Jacox, Michael G., Koenigstein, Stefan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3684-8690, Kuriyama, Peter, Muhling, Barbara, Pozo Buil, Mercedes and Thompson, Andrew (2026) Revealing climate impacts on recruitment drivers of small pelagic fish through Dynamic Factor Analysis. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 787 . meps15152. DOI https://doi.org/10.3354/meps15152.

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Abstract

Small pelagic fish exhibit boom-bust cycles driven by fluctuations in recruitment success linked to environmental forcing. The cumulative impacts of these drivers remain poorly understood and are rarely accurately predicted. Without a mechanistic understanding of environment-recruitment linkages, risks to managing fish stocks may increase as the climate changes and underlying linkages shift or break down. Recruitment, or the culmination of parental fecundity and early life stage growth and survival, is determined by 1) behavioral and physiological responses to oceanographic conditions, 2) maternal condition, 3) forage availability, and/or 4) predation. We developed an approach to identify, test, and project the influence of these drivers on Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) in the California Current System. First, we identified process-based indicators of recruitment from literature review and expert elicitation. Using these indicators and Dynamic Factor Analysis, we derived recruitment indices for each species from 1990 to 2019 and tested model skill for prediction of future recruitment. Indicators of upwelling regime and timing, zooplankton community composition, advective transport, and parental condition were strongly associated with recruitment in these two stocks. We then projected the recruitment indices through the end of the century under climate change using three regionally downscaled ocean projections. Although our models did not improve predictive skill over a persistence prediction at an annual forecast resolution, our approach supports integrating understanding of multiple recruitment mechanisms into strategic management advice and incorporating detailed early life stage dynamics in models of these stocks for effective estimation of climate impacts.

Document Type:	Article
Programme Area:	PA1
Research affiliation:	Ecosystems and Resource Sustainability
Refereed:	Yes
Document Access:	Closed access
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.3354/meps15152
ISSN:	0171-8630
Date Deposited:	16 Jun 2026 16:04
Last Modified:	16 Jun 2026 16:04
URI:	https://cris.leibniz-zmt.de/id/eprint/6224

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